The MS warranty is the best deal out there, I went to get the unit swapped out yesterday and they weren't so eager to swap it for cosmetic issues, but when I told them and showed them the receipt that I had purchased the extended warranty, they changed their tune.
When I went to the store, they swapped it out for a brand new one, granted I was still under the 30 day return policy.
A few months down the line, I bet they will have a nice build-up of returned units that are waiting to be refurbished units. Maybe that is why the ADP warranty is so cheap, lol.
In any case, most warranties will always give you a refurbished unit.
I have a squaretrade warranty for my Samsung Galaxy S4 with a $99 deductible, recently after a year, the phone has a broken vibrator motor and dirt inside the camera. After I called them I decided to repair it myself, because squaretrade promises to repair your product and if not repairable, pay you out the cost of a replacement "refurbished device". I ended up buying a replacement camera for $17 and a replacement vibrator motor for $5, opened it up and repaired it myself, better than getting a refurbished unit back and spending $99 on the deductible.
In any case, the SP3 is probably glued together so it will be hard to repair anything major except the battery.
I just went for the Microsoft Complete Coverage Plan. This thing has become my carry everywhere device and most of the time it is not in any case nor even the type cover on. I feel a little better now.