Should I Wait For The SP4

[InspectHerGadget]

It is always a topic of conversation about when it might come out but upgrades of chip is always possible immediately, they're available witness 4200 to 4300 U in the SP2. It would be just as easy to drop a Broadwell in it.

I agree a full revamp of the existing model will wait until at least the release of Windows 10.

The question though is what will be the effect on Surface sales when there becomes a choice of much better and faster Broadwell based ultrabooks and tablets?

This will start to happen with the Helix Broadwell in October and by holiday time there will be a host of new models which will be both faster (40%) in their respective category Y or U series CPUs along with a longer battery life. These are not small differences in performances unlike say going from a 4200 to 4300 U is. The differences in graphics performance are even greater than the 40% increase in CPU performance, some reported at 6x greater.

It matters to me as I'm not made of money and I will sell whatever I currently have to get a Broadwell based portable device when they come out. That will hopefully be a Surface but not if I have to wait too long.

Edit: Sitting on a SP2 i5/8G/256G currently which I like but I do want more performance. Tried the i7 SP3 and got spoilt so want something as fast or faster but it may pay to wait. No I'm not rich. If I were I would just buy what I want and sell it whenever a better model came out.

 

[GreyFox7]

I don't think you will see U series release in time for appearance in 2014 holiday devices, based on published schedules, id expect only Y (Core-M) devices.

 

[InspectHerGadget]

It is odd timing the more I think about it with the SP3 with Broadwell being so close to release. Even back in August when I bought this SP2 second hand the owner and I were discussing it. Broadwell having been delayed maybe has been a bit of a dilemma for Microsoft.

Here is off Wikipedia...looks like U series chips in Q4 2014, as expected, in time for the holiday season.

My bet is an SP3 Broadwell by Christmas....

• Broadwell-Y: System-on-chip (SoC); 4.5 W and 3.5 W TDP classes, for tablets and certain ultrabook-class implementations. GT2 GPU will be used, while maximum supported memory is 8 GB of LPDDR3-1600.[8] These will be the first chips to roll out, and are expected for Q3/Q4 2014. At Computex 2014, Intel announced that these chips will be branded as Core M.[9]

• Broadwell-U: SoC; two TDP classes – 15 W for 2+2 and 2+3 configurations (two cores with a GT2 or GT3 GPU) as well as 28 W for 2+3 configurations.[10] Designed to be used on motherboards with the PCH-LP chipset for Intel's ultrabook and NUC platforms. Maximum supported memory is either 16 GB of DDR3L-1600, or 8 GB of LPDDR3-1600. The 2+2 configuration is scheduled for Q4 2014, while the 2+3 is estimated for Q1 2015.[7]

 

[GreyFox7]

and if the U 2+2 is released in December as expected you wont see it in a device until February or March. First Core-M became available in August.

It takes some time to move through the supply chain even if you think they have a devices sitting on the line waiting for a SoC to drop which isn't how it works at all. if they had a thousand of them and they built a thousand devices and ship them to ... a thousand stores you only have one device per store. That was some hyperbole to ponder.

 

[InspectHerGadget]

and if the U 2+2 is released in December as expected you wont see it in a device until February or March. First Core-M became available in August.

It takes some time to move through the supply chain even if you think they have a devices sitting on the line waiting for a SoC to drop which isn't how it works at all. if they had a thousand of them and they built a thousand devices and ship them to ... a thousand stores you only have one device per store. That was some hyperbole to ponder.

I don't agree at all. The first week Haswell series processors were announced, they were in my MBA 11 I bought. The MBA had these in it almost simultaneously with the release of the chip. All it takes is careful planning and cooperation to make it happen.

I was reading last week that millions of these 15W U series Broadwell chips are currently being manufactured. Present tense.

These chips are already with whatever manufacturers want them for testing.

If you believe Microsoft to be incapable of doing what Apple did, you may be right.

You see the Haswell was an amazing advance in battery life and Apple wanted to be first to market and they were. It worked. I bought one as lots of others did.

This is what I'm saying about Broadwell, it is a BIG deal. The first devices to market stand to do very well.

My bet is still Broadwell in one or more Surface models by Christmas, most likely the SP3. They could even do better and put a Surface 3 out which runs full windows on a Y series Broadwell and then release the U Series Broadwell in the SP3. They'd then have a clear six months or more to put Skylake into a revamped SP4. If they leave the Surface without Broadwell, they'll be dead meat.

 

[InspectHerGadget]

I should say some of my comments rely on Microsoft behaving like the new, reinvented Microsoft. You know nimble and capable of surprises.

The old Microsoft of design by committee with committees to oversee the design committee, with different committees from each department being elected to a an interdepartmental committee which then made recommendations to management who then issued directives to the committees based on the final committees recommendation. The instructions would then be translated to various departments who would then undertake the final design process and tender the appropriate documents to manufacturing after being vetted by the Marketing department. Quite without recourse to whether the original intention starting the process bore any resemblance to the final product rolling off the production line six months too late...

 

[GreyFox7]

Show me a Broadwell Y device you can take home today from any vendor. The Core-M is the biggest thing since the invention of beer. It was released two months ago. Where are they?
Devices are expected maybe in October or November... that's 2-3 months after release. The clock is ticking.

I guess Intel doesn't like MS that much... they were supposedly working closely MS and they released the first B chips less than two months after SP3 shipped. I guess they had a miraculous breakthrough in yield right after they told MS it wasn't ready. OR MS wasn't ready to part with another billion dollars to grease Intel's palms.

Irrational exuberance notwithstanding it gets here when it gets here. Although I don't necessarily agree with everything MS is doing with their release timing I doubt what you bet will happen, happens. MS appears from all statements to be planning a big bang (or fizzle) with everything tied up around Threshold which incidentally they just delayed. I'd definitely not tie devices to software like that. Devices are devices, Software is software... software is always installable on recent and even not so recent devices.

 

[GreyFox7]

Regarding Apple: There's really no comparison possible between MS and Apple. The closest would be BlackBerry Or IBMs proprietary systems. Apple makes one or three hardware devices their software runs on and that's it, they control everything from soup to nuts. They don't have to be concerned with adhering to standards and specs to accommodate 50 partners and hundreds of OEMs building stuff with varying degrees of adherence to spec. They can do anything they want under the covers in a closed system.

In theory MS could fork the build for the SP line, jettison tons of code and optimize for their device... wont happen... unless Surface gets spun off as a separate company... wont happen. The committee isn't just the internal groups its also the partners and industry players. Herding cats on steroids.

 

[InspectHerGadget]

I spoke to someone at a store today who is in a position to know about upcoming Broadwell products. The interesting thing he had to say is that Apple were going to release a new version of the MBA soon with a low power Broadwell chip, fanless, 12 inch but it is being delayed until February due to shortage of chips.

On that basis, even though the 15W is somewhat different, it could be a chip shortage if anything that could put the dampers on a widespread adoption of Broadwell by Christmas.

It may be some makers may be happier spending on new models once Windows 10 comes along due to the poor reception and reputation Windows 8 has acquired.

We should know definitely by the end of the month, what is on the menu for Christmas I would think.

 

[GreyFox7]

You cant just drop a B chip into an H board either, the Chipset also has to replaced and you need to update all the chipset drivers. New firmware and totally different power management schemes, new graphics driver. I don't think any of the stock Intel stuff supports Connected Standby either so there's more work to be done there. Acer or someone like that, with a very generic implementation, will likely be the first to market but it wont be spectacular as a B design example.

Id speculate Apple paid Intel handsomely for the bulk of first run H chips for their MBA release back in the day and Intel probably caught heck from everyone else because of it. A chip shortage of sorts... doling out the supply to a number of vendors means nobody's getting all they want initially.

 

[InspectHerGadget]

You cant just drop a B chip into an H board either, the Chipset also has to replaced and you need to update all the chipset drivers. New firmware and totally different power management schemes, new graphics driver. I don't think any of the stock Intel stuff supports Connected Standby either so there's more work to be done there. Acer or someone like that, with a very generic implementation, will likely be the first to market but it wont be spectacular as a B design example.

Id speculate Apple paid Intel handsomely for the bulk of first run H chips for their MBA release back in the day and Intel probably caught heck from everyone else because of it. A chip shortage of sorts... doling out the supply to a number of vendors means nobody's getting all they want initially.

Im not an Engineer but what you say there makes sense. I know though that companies do have lead time with pre release hardware.

It could be that Apple did pay Intel extra for getting the Haswell first. It is also possible that Apple was first not only because they chose to be but they had the huge engineering resources to focus on getting it done to a very tight schedule.

I remember at the time though being very impressed by them being so far ahead of everyone else. It took Microsoft six months to catch up with the SP2.

 

[thremix]

I say skip broadwell, don't worry about its release at all....

Wait for skylark, or skylake or whatever. That will be out in a year, enjoy the already amazing sp3 until then, after that sell it and trade up... I've been doing that with Apple for years.