8 Products That Won't Make It To 2014

[Russ]

I don't think Yahoo will make it to 2014

Tony --

That's a better prediction. Yahoo is not in really good shape, and still reeling from their CEO's refusal to sell to Microsoft at a really absurd price (in retrospect).

Regards,
Russ

 

[Nuspieds]

I was never really optimistic about that RT thing. You just gotta get that x86 architecture to be competitive somehow, but I certainly never foresaw a huge adoption of RT and can't really understand why someone with Windows apps would go for such a machine/OS.

And then there's stuff like this...

Prices of Windows RT tablets drop, point to failure of OS | PCWorld

 

[mesii23]

I owned a Surface RT and hated it, so I can see why they don't think that RT is gonna make it much longer.

The App Store on its best day, is quite sad, and without legacy apps, the RT is a giant toy.

I now have an Asus tablet running an Intel Atom processor which allows for the use of legacy apps. Not the fastest device by any means but equal in speed to the ARM version, and a heck of a lot more versatile

 

[J515OP]

I owned a Surface RT and hated it, so I can see why they don't think that RT is gonna make it much longer.

The App Store on its best day, is quite sad, and without legacy apps, the RT is a giant toy.

I now have an Asus tablet running an Intel Atom processor which allows for the use of legacy apps. Not the fastest device by any means but equal in speed to the ARM version, and a heck of a lot more versatile

The point is RT is a giant toy with Office. That alone makes it superior to other giant toys and fills the specific gap people with those other toys have been clamoring for. Read some of the RT threads and you will find those here who want that exact device and wish MS would do more to focus on just the Modern UI portion for Win RT

 

[bosamar]

the RT is a giant toy.

For those of us who were searching for an iPad replacement I'd say this 'toy' RT Surface tablet has exceeded my expectations. What did your RT replace?

 

[mesii23]

. What did your RT replace?

Nothing because I was simply intrigued by Windows 8 and the device itself. But after having it, I just determined that it wasn't for me. I replaced the RT with an Asus Vivo Tab Smart, which is lighter and runs full Windows 8 via the Atom processor.

IMO Microsoft should have made the RT with the Atom which would allow for use of x86 apps. Then the Pro could have still been the much higher performance albeit more expensive version of the device. I just don't see RT as a viable platform after using it. Not when you can get a full Windows 8 tablet for the same price from Asus. Again just my thoughts on it

 

[J515OP]

IMO Microsoft should have made the RT with the Atom which would allow for use of x86 apps.

You are overlooking the fact that this makes MS completely reliant on Intel in a shrinking PC market. By having an ARM based Windows they opened up an entirely new line of possible devices and partners in the rapidly growing mobile processor space. This is far more important strategically than simply hitting price points and performance steps with Atom/Core devices.

 

[mesii23]

You are overlooking the fact that this makes MS completely reliant on Intel in a shrinking PC market. By having an ARM based Windows they opened up an entirely new line of possible devices and partners in the rapidly growing mobile processor space. This is far more important strategically than simply hitting price points and performance steps with Atom/Core devices.

Intel isn't going anywhere anytime soon, so I don't quite see that as such a downside.

But if your going to branch out with a product like this, you have to make it something that people want to buy, and the sales just don't seem to back it up.

Don't get me wrong, I want them to succeed with this, competition spurs innovation, and innovation has been lacking a bit lately, I just don't thing RT is a strong enough platform. The pro on the other has the potential to be a game changer. And I will say that the build quality on both has been fantastic, so credit where credit is due on those two points

 

[J515OP]

Intel isn't going anywhere anytime soon, so I don't quite see that as such a downside.

But if your going to branch out with a product like this, you have to make it something that people want to buy, and the sales just don't seem to back it up.

I just don't thing RT is a strong enough platform.

Intel isn't going anywhere but being exclusively tied to one chip maker is not a good idea. AMD isn't what it once was and ARM is on the rise. It would be a mistake for MS to take the attitude that "Intel is enough."

The RT sales aren't as bad as you might be reading and the RT is definitely as much of a game changer as the Pro is. It gives you an iPad/Android tab with Office and traditional Windows file management and networking. These are some of the biggest gripes against the other OSes and make the RT a standout when it comes to productivity even without legacy apps.

Current estimates are that MS has sold about 1.1 million RTs and 400k Pros. It may not sound like much comparing to the iPad but that is clearly the wrong bench mark to use if the numbers are accurate that iPads represent 51% of the 4Q12 sales. Instead you need to look at other devices.

In 4Q11:

Samsung shipped 2.2 million tablets not first gen devices and running a well established Android OS.

ASUS shipped 600 thousand not first generation devices running Android.

B&N shipped 1.4 million not first generation Nook Tablets and was 5th place among tablet manufacturers.

In 4Q12:

B&N slipped to 1 million units and was still good enough for 5th place.

ASUS shipped 3.1 million units in a solid 4th place (that may be counting Nexus 7 devices which were a hit).

http://www.surfaceforums.net/forum/...azon-lose-only-900k-surface-tabs-shipped.html


Now getting back to RT's 1.1 million units, it appears they will likely pass B&N in 1Q13 for 5th place overall with RT alone. Even at 3.1 million units ASUS is within striking distance. There is a possibility that MS could end up as the 4th place tablet maker at the end of this year with both the RT and Pro which are both first generation devices on a new OS. Apple numbers they are not but 4th or 5th place overall doesn't sound too bad either.

JP

 

[kristalsoldier]

The interesting thing is the difference between "shipped" and "sold". For instance, you posted:

In 4Q11:

ASUS sold 600 thousand not first generation devices running Android.

In 4Q12:

ASUS shipped 3.1 million units in a solid 4th place (that may be counting Nexus 7 devices which were a hit).

I assume "shipped" means released into the retail network and "sold" means actual units transacted for cash.

This is something that I see with the Surface sales too. With specific reference to the Surface RT, MS says that they "shipped" 1.1 million units. But how many of that 1.1 million units were "sold"? And, there is where I think the critics are having a problem.

Regardless, I think after MS releases "Blue" for RT, things will look up because it will wrinkle out the not-so-good elements in RT at the moment. Or, at least I hope so. Why? Because, I think the Surface RT is a very good machine. I also think that MS totally screwed up its advertisement, launch and distribution. By mid this year (or whenever it is that Blue comes online), MS should have got its act together. I don't foresee Apple doing anything earth-shattering with the iPad at least for the next 12-18 months. Any improvements will, at best, be incremental. But for the Surface RT (and for Win 8 more generally) any improvement will be a dramatic leap in capability.

 

[J515OP]

The interesting thing is the difference between "shipped" and "sold". For instance, you posted:

In 4Q11:

ASUS sold 600 thousand not first generation devices running Android.

In 4Q12:

ASUS shipped 3.1 million units in a solid 4th place (that may be counting Nexus 7 devices which were a hit).

I assume "shipped" means released into the retail network and "sold" means actual units transacted for cash.

This is something that I see with the Surface sales too. With specific reference to the Surface RT, MS says that they "shipped" 1.1 million units. But how many of that 1.1 million units were "sold"? And, there is where I think the critics are having a problem.

Regardless, I think after MS releases "Blue" for RT, things will look up because it will wrinkle out the not-so-good elements in RT at the moment. Or, at least I hope so. Why? Because, I think the Surface RT is a very good machine. I also think that MS totally screwed up its advertisement, launch and distribution. By mid this year (or whenever it is that Blue comes online), MS should have got its act together. I don't foresee Apple doing anything earth-shattering with the iPad at least for the next 12-18 months. Any improvements will, at best, be incremental. But for the Surface RT (and for Win 8 more generally) any improvement will be a dramatic leap in capability.

lol good catch. Completely unintentional on my part and I updated my post to shipped. The thing is everybody quotes "shipped" and it is taken to mean "sold" that is just the way it works. Now in the case of Surface the numbers being cited by critics are actually "sold" not shipped units. How anybody knows this I don't know but the critics are certainly using a different number than when they say "shipped" because in the same articles they talk about 3 million Surface RTs being manufactured. On my part it was a mistake because I don't normally talk about such numbers but if critics are using sold instead of shipped it is almost certainly to make the numbers look worse in comparison.

Presumably the "shipped" number out of that 3 million would be much higher. No matter how you split the hairs, nobody but Apple has had immediate success in the tablet market (they maybe the only company that reports sold units) and that is the larger point. MS is in good shape at this stage of the game.

JP

 

[J515OP]

This is an interesting quote from Tom's hardware

"CNET claims that the number of Surface Pro units sold thus far is not a bad start. But in the quarter that ended in December, Apple sold 22.9 million iPads, and worldwide shipments reached 128.3 million units in 2012 alone. Facing a declining PC market which converts into lost revenue, Microsoft needs better Surface unit sales, plain and simple."

Of course the problem here is choosing Apple to be representative of quarterly shipments/sales. That apple is selling 23 million units per quarter is of no concern to MS (they sold more than everybody else combined with 51% of the market). If MS can "ship" 3.5 million RTs and Pros combined in a quarter they may take over 4th place overall behind only Apple, Samsung and Amazon. For a company that only makes 2 tablets and has only been doing so for a few months I still think that is impressive.

One more to round out the post. From a zdnet article back on Feb. 1, 2013 (3 months of Surface sales):

Yes, more than a million of the tablets may have shipped, but that doesn't mean they were sold. In fact, depending on which source you listen to, far fewer than a million Surface slates have been purchased.

IHS iSuppli told our sister site CNET that despite shipping over 1.25 million Surface units, Microsoft only sold about 700,000 of them. Even worse, return rates for the Surface RT were deemed "high," owing perhaps to the learning curve surronding Windows 8/RT. Analyst Rhoda Alexander did suggest, however, that the low initial sales and high returns was reminiscent of the Amazon Kindle Fire's entry into the market.

Since 1.25 million shipped by Feb. 1 and 700,00 were sold I would say that statements of more than 1 million sold as of today is evidence of actual sales not shipments.

http://www.zdnet.com/microsoft-surf...ales-disappoint-in-fourth-quarter-7000010688/