I would be quite surprised to see refurbs being offered for $199 again. Considering how quickly they sold out each time they were offered, and how more modestly they sell at $249, I'd expect to see a few more waves of $249 bundles.Don't you think the price will drop again after the 27th? Or at least by the 18th of October?
I just installed 8.1 RTM last night on my RT. Improved performance (which was already good IMO), functionality, and smaller disk footprint makes the 1st gen RT even better.
I have a terrible track record predicting what Microsoft will do (though I DID anticipate the $199 firesale), but I can see Microsoft selling the 1st Gen RT for $349 and the 2nd gen for MORE. With 8.1 on the RT, and additional units in consumers hands (thanks to the lower price, refurb firesales, word of mouth) Microsoft has nothing to apologize for with the RT.